U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018

Posted by Jimmy Minnish on March 11, 2018 under Links | Be the First to Comment

Poll Watching Primaries: TX primaries strong +RED. PA get out the RED vote! Watching for strong PA results on Tuesday…

 Elections for 33 U.S. Senate seats will take place in 2018. As of January 2018, Ballotpedia expects that at least nine of those 33 races will be general election battlegrounds and another four races are currently classified as races to watch, which could become battlegrounds depending on how they develop. The criteria and factors outlined in this study are based on the recent history in these elections. If there is a Democratic or Republican wave, more races could be battlegrounds in 2018.

The primary factors for determining which states are likely to be competitive were the vote margins from previous statewide elections as well as how the state voted in the most recent presidential elections. Other factors were also considered, such as whether a seat is open or if a particularly strong challenger has entered the race.

Heading into the election, the Republican Party holds a 51-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats hold 47 seats, and the remaining two are held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.

  • Democrats are left defending 25 seats (two of which are held by independents), while only eight seats up for election in 2018 are held by Republican incumbents. The fact that the Democratic Party has more seats to defend places it at a disadvantage relative to the Republican Party, regardless of political climate.
  • The Democratic Party must defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, while only one state with a Republican incumbent was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, as listed below. These states make up the majority of those considered to be battlegrounds in 2018.
  • There are 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

The following map displays which Senate seats are up for election in 2018 and our competitiveness rating for each state. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.

 

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2018 U.S. Senate Elections


Election Date
November 6, 2018


U.S. Senate Elections by State
BattlegroundsPrimaries to watch
GOP primaries • Democratic primaries
Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming


U.S. House Elections by State
BattlegroundsPrimaries to watch
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Ratings

United States Senate Competitive Races
State Incumbent Rating
Arizona Republican Party Jeff Flake Battleground
Florida Democratic Party Bill Nelson Battleground
Indiana Democratic Party Joe Donnelly Battleground
Maine Grey.png Angus King Race to watch
Michigan Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow Race to watch
Missouri Democratic Party Claire McCaskill Battleground
Montana Democratic Party Jon Tester Battleground
Nevada Republican Party Dean Heller Battleground
North Dakota Democratic Party Heidi Heitkamp Battleground
Ohio Democratic Party Sherrod Brown Battleground
Pennsylvania Democratic Party Bob Casey Race to watch
West Virginia Democratic Party Joe Manchin Battleground
Wisconsin Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin Race to watch

State by state breakdown

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